SACRAMENTO — California’s high-speed rail hasn’t laid any tracks, is years behind schedule, and costs billions more than planned, according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal today.
Voters approved the high-speed rail nearly 18 years ago through a ballot measure, with over 47% of voters disapproving of the project. It has become the largest current infrastructure project in the United States. Initially, it was supposed to be completed by 2020 at a cost of $33 billion, but that has ballooned to over $126 billion and isn’t expected to be open until 2040 (at the earliest).
“This is a disaster,” State Senator Catherine Blakespear, a Democrat, said at a committee meeting earlier this year, according to the Wall Street Journal. “I am such an enthusiast for rail and I really want this to be successful and just hearing these things makes it seem like we’re proceeding on a wing and a prayer.”
The project, run by the California High-Speed Rail Authority, will attempt to begin laying track by the end of this year. The initial segment will run between Merced and Bakersfield. Officials say that segment alone will cost $36 billion and open around 2033. However, an inspector general report has warned that the project could run out of money as early as 2027.
State lawmakers, both Republican and Democrat, have questioned whether the full system will ever be built as promised to voters.
Republican state Senator Tony Strickland, who represents coastal and northwestern regions of Orange County as well as southeastern Los Angeles County, said, “I don’t think this will ever be built as proposed to people in California. I know I wouldn’t put my money and invest in this, but I wish you luck.”
History
The project grew out of a state planning effort in the 1990s and has since morphed into am ambitious plan for a San Francisco to Los Angeles/Anaheim train system.
In 1996, the California legislature created the California High-Speed Rail Authority with ambitions to build an intercity high-speed rail network linking major population centers in the state. In 2000, the Authority released an initial business plan. Legislators had planned to place a bond measure before voters in 2004, but the measure was delayed to 2006 and again to 2008.
In November 2008, California voters approved Proposition 1A, authorizing up to $9.95 billion in general-obligation bonds. Of that total, $9 billion was designated for high-speed rail planning, engineering, and construction, while $950 million supported connections and improvements to existing passenger rail. The ballot measure envisioned an approximately 800-mile system, including a San Francisco–Los Angeles route with trains capable of at least 200 mph and a target trip time of about 2 hours and 40 minutes.
Federal stimulus funding awarded in 2010 helped establish the project’s early financing alongside state bond funds. The Authority began awarding construction contracts in 2013, and the formal groundbreaking for the first Central Valley work occurred near Fresno on January 6, 2015.
The Central Valley became the project’s first major construction zone because it offered a comparatively feasible place to begin building a dedicated high-speed corridor while the state continued environmental clearance and planning elsewhere. Today, the project’s immediate construction focus is the roughly 171-mile Merced-to-Bakersfield segment, rather than the original full statewide system.
Delays and changing scope
Costs, schedules, property acquisition, utility relocations, design changes, and management issues have repeatedly pushed the project beyond its original expectations. A 2018 state-auditor review criticized the Authority’s cost-overrun and delay management, and later business plans substantially increased estimates for completing the full San Francisco-to-Los Angeles/Anaheim Phase 1 route.
In 2019, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced that California would prioritize completing the Central Valley line, while still pursuing environmental work and “bookend” investments in the Bay Area and Southern California. The statewide Phase 1 vision remains a 494-mile route from San Francisco to Los Angeles/Anaheim; as of 2024, 463 miles had environmental clearance.
Where it currently stands
Construction is active on 119 miles in the Central Valley, with the Authority reporting more than 60 completed major structures and 80 miles of completed guideway. Work is also advancing to extend the Central Valley program between Merced and Bakersfield, while completed Caltrain electrification in the Bay Area and other regional upgrades are intended to support the eventual statewide network.
High-speed rail in the United States today
The United States has limited true high-speed rail today, but it is in an expansion phase: upgraded Acela service runs in the Northeast, while California’s system and Brightline West are the most consequential new-build projects. Most other proposed corridors are still in planning, environmental review, or early engineering.
Amtrak’s Acela service on the Northeast Corridor—Washington, D.C., New York City, and Boston—is the country’s fastest operating passenger rail service. Its new NextGen Acela equipment, entering service through 2027, has a maximum speed of 160 mph, although trains cannot sustain that speed for most of the route because they share an older, curving, heavily used corridor.
Brightline operates higher-speed intercity passenger trains in Florida, but it is generally not considered a fully dedicated “true” high-speed rail system because its top operating speeds are lower and it shares or crosses more conventional rail infrastructure.
Federal policy is now geared toward building a project pipeline rather than producing many immediately buildable lines. The Federal Railroad Administration’s Corridor ID Program supports route planning, preliminary engineering, environmental review, operations analysis, and other pre-construction work; 69 corridors in 44 states were selected in its initial round.
